What further environmental damage will we see in five, 10, even 50 years' time? Rob Holdway looks ahead

In five years
Climate change The next five years will be crucial in our battle with climate change. Even with large and early cuts in emissions (3% per year starting in 2010) projections indicate that temperatures are likely to rise by around 2˚C by the end of this century with devastating impact on land use. Contrast that with a world where no action is taken to curb global warming. In this case, temperatures could rise as high as 7˚C above pre-industrial values by the end of the century with severe and potentially irreversible impacts. Consequently, the Kyoto protocol has set requirements for developed countries to cut their emissions of greenhouse gases by 2012.

Emissions On average, each human on earth is responsible for adding two metric tonnes of CO2 to the atmosphere each year. The United Nations calculates that an average air-conditioner in Florida is responsible for more CO2 every year than a person in Cambodia is in a lifetime, and that a dishwasher in Europe annually emits as much CO2 as three Ethiopians do in their whole lives. Given the global population is 6.5 billion and increasing rapidly, each of us will need to cut emissions just to halt the rate of decline.

Reducing emissions through greater efficiency will save money. The average household in the UK can save at least £120 per year simply by improving the insulation in their home.

Resources and waste Our modern lives and homes are filled with 'stuff' and our desire to display our material worth depletes valuable raw material supplies and creates mountains of waste. If everyone lived like the average European, we'd need three planets worth of resources to sustain our lifestyles. So it's vital we cut back both on the materials we use and the waste we produce.

In the UK
Destruction of our environment Landfill space in the UK is expected to run out in around eight years. By 2010 councils will have to cut the amount of biodegradable waste they dump in the ground by 75% of 1995 levels. Over the next five years, as space runs out, landfill taxes will rise.
Currently 19.2 million people are classed as 'climate refugees' - forced to leave their area due to environmental disasters. This figure will rise to 50 million in 2010 and Western countries will have to deal with higher levels of migration.

Around the world
Oil problems Global oil production is expected to peak in the coming years; some leading geologists believe this peak has already been reached. From then, oil supplies will fall into an irreversible decline and, as it becomes increasingly difficult and costly to extract, oil prices will continue to increase. This may cause global recession and political or military conflicts as countries battle for the remaining supplies. For us at home it will mean increased fuel and food bills and higher prices at the petrol pumps.

In 10 years

In the UK
Effects of changing weather By 2020, the average annual temperature in the UK is expected to rise by between 0.5 and 1˚C. Summer rainfall may decrease by up to 20% which, combined with a larger population, will put extra strain on water supplies. In dry areas such as South East England, extra reservoirs will need to be built to maintain reliable supplies.

Incidents of flash floods will also rise in the UK and Europe, causing damage to homes and businesses.

We are already seeing plants flowering and birds nesting weeks before they did 20 years ago. As British and global climates continue to alter, so will the habits of plant and animals inhabiting our shores. Those species which are unable to adapt or migrate will die out.

Around the world
Transport By 2020 there could be an additional 700 million vehicles on the roads and air travel is predicted to double by 2030, both of which will raise fossil fuel use and CO2 emissions.

Weather issues Rainfall in many parts of the world will decrease causing severe water shortages and widespread crop failures will result. Along with increased world population, which is expected to reach 7.6 billion by 2020, this will affect millions of people worldwide. The resulting food shortages will distress food security, exacerbate malnutrition and create higher grocery bills. Farmers around the world will have to replace their crops with those that can survive the altered conditions.

Food supplies will be affected as fish stocks decline due to rising water temperatures and over fishing.

Warmer, wetter climates will mean more disease-spreading mosquitoes. Poorer parts of the world will suffer as diseases such as malaria and dengue fever become more widespread.

In 50 years In the UK
The UK aims to reduce household emissions by 60%. In order to achieve this, our lifestyles must dramatically change making every aspect more energy efficient, and expanding our use of alternative fuels from renewable sources.

Around the world
Climate and weather issues By 2050 small Alpine glaciers may have disappeared completely while larger glaciers will have shrunk dramatically, causing sea levels to rise.

World population is expected to reach 9.4 billion and this, combined with drought, will exacerbate pressure on water supplies. Hundreds of millions of people will be living in areas of extreme water stress.

The changing climate and weather patterns will result in millions of deaths worldwide. Higher temperatures in Australia will cause extra heat-related deaths whereas other areas will see deaths from flooding. Warmer, drier conditions in the Mediterranean along with longer more frequent droughts will put lives at risk from forest fires and heatwaves.

Turn of the Century
By 2100 average global temperature will have risen by at least 2.5˚C and as much as 10˚C. In the UK temperatures could rise by 5˚C and hottest days could be in the mid-40s. We'll have up to 50% less precipitation in summer and will suffer water shortages.

Sea levels will rise by up to 80cm and increased flooding will displace millions. Low-lying areas such as lower Manhattan in New York and The Tower of London may be under water and small island populations will be particularly at risk.

If global temperatures do rise 2-3˚C above pre-industrial levels, many animals and plants will be unable to adapt, and one quarter of species will become extinct.

Permafrost in areas north of the Arctic Circle will thaw releasing the greenhouse gases trapped within it. The earth will reach a stage where it releases more CO2 than it absorbs and atmospheric CO2 levels would be higher than at any time during the past 650,000 years. Ocean pH levels would fall to their lowest in 20 million years, affecting the ability of shellfish and coral to survive, ultimately causing loss of biodiversity in areas like the Great Barrier Reef in Australia.

PICS: Getty, Shutterstock